Sunday, August 4, 2013

Biogen's New Multiple Sclerosis Drug May Be Growth Driver

Biogen Idec's (BIIB) new multiple sclerosis drug may drive the company's growth for years.

Biogen's EPS has been slowing in recent quarters. The company reported gains of 41% in Q1 and 26% in Q2. The consensus for Q3 predicts a 10% gain.

Sales growth, meanwhile, has been improving from low levels. Since posting 6% higher revenue in last year's Q3, Biogen upped its sales 7% in Q4, 10% in Q1 and 21% in Q2. More would be better, but the acceleration is a positive. 

In its Q2 report on July 25, Biogen upped its full-year EPS guidance to $8.25-$8.55, reflecting growth of 26% to 30%. The consensus is more optimistic, predicting $8.58, or a 31% gain.
Biogen that day also said sales of its new multiple sclerosis drug Tecfidera came to $192 million, vastly better than the $66 million most analysts had been expecting. That performance was the "holy mother of all launches," said ISI Group analyst Mark Schoenebaum.

Now analysts are talking about $3.5 billion in annual Tecfidera sales by 2017. To put that in perspective, analysts expect $6.8 billion in sales of all products combined this year.


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